It's that time again. Oscar time! Yes the time of year Hollywood's brightest and best come out to celebrate how awesome they all are. Seriously we all know the Academy Awards are a joke at this point. As I pointed out in a previous post the Academy Awards are about 90% popularity contest. The musical performances are unwatchable, the speeches go on way too long, the air is so thick with pretension you could cut it with one of Nic Cage's stiffer wigs, and Sean Penn will inevitably act like the giant douchebag he is at some point in the evening.
Still it is the only award show I make an effort to watch. The opening sequences are typically funny and usually there is at least one or two strange/ridiculous moments that make it worth tuning into. Also on the morbid side, I'm always interested in seeing what actors, actresses, directors, and writers have passed away in the past year. And in some years I have a very vested interest in the winners. (1995's winner Braveheart and 2003's winner The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King made my evening.)
As a movie connoisseur I think it only fitting that I give my Oscar picks. Note that I will only be doing the major categories. I will tell you who I think should win and who will win. So without further ado....
Actress in a Supporting Role: Nominees are Amy Adams for The Fighter, Melissa Leo for The Fighter, Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech, Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom, Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit
Who Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld. Her performance in True Grit was a revelation. That someone that young could go toe to toe with Jeff Bridges was a sight to see.
Who Will Win: Melissa Leo. Her role as the tough as nails mother to "Irish" Mickey Ward in The Fighter was riveting. This may be the toughest award to call though because Leo may split the votes with co-star Amy Adams leaving the door open for Steinfeld.
Actor In a Supporting Role: Nominees are Christian Bale for The Fighter, John Hawkes for Winter's Bone, Jeremy Renner for The Town, Mark Ruffalo for The Kids are Alright, and Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech.
Who Should Win: Christian Bale. Bale is one of the best method actors of our generation and it's fantastic that he finally got the recognition he deserved for playing crack addicted trainer Dick Ecklund in The Fighter. As much as I loved Jeremy Renner in The Town, Bale gets the nod.
Who Will Win: Christian Bale. Take it to the bank, the Batman is walking away with the statue Sunday night.
Actress In A Leading Role: The Nominees are Annette Bening in The Kids are Alright, Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole, Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone, Natalie Portman in Black Swan, and Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine.
Who Should Win: Natalie Portman. Portman's turn in Black Swan was the best psychological breakdown I've seen on screen since DeNiro played Travis Bickle in Taxi Driver. The physical nature of the role was equally impressive.
Who Will Win: Annette Bening. As I've stated the Oscars is often a popularity contest and I get the feeling that the Academy is going to award the Oscarless Bening with a golden trophy come Sunday evening. I sincerely hope not since I loved Portman's performance but to be fair I haven't seen The Kids Are Alright. Nevertheless, Portman will walk away empty handed on Oscar night.
Actor In a Leading Role: The Nominees are Javier Bardem for Biutiful, Jeff Bridges for True Grit, Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network, Colin Firth for The King's Speech, James Franco for 127 Hours.
Who Should Win: Jeff Bridges. While I freely admit that I've never seen the 1969 John Wayne original, I thought Bridges nailed the cantankerous, drunken "Rooster" Cogburn in the Cohen brothers updated version of True Grit. Too bad he won't be the first person since Tom Hanks to win the Best Actor award two years in a row.
Who Will Win: Colin Firth. To paraphrase Daryl Hammond as Sean Connery on SNL's Jeopardy! skit, "His time has come!" Firth has been a fine actor in the movie industry for years and his turn as a stuttering British monarch will garner him the gold.
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan, David O. Russell for The Fighter, Tom Hooper for The King's Speech, David Fincher for The Social Network, Joel and Ethan Cohen for True Grit.
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan. Yes I know he's not nominated but it's my blog and I can write what I want. Nolan's ability to craft a highly stylized intricate story involving visually stunning imagery, while maintaining emotional resonance was not an easy thing to do. It's a travesty he wasn't nominated.
Who Will Win: David Fincher. The acclaimed director of such great films as Seven, Fight Club, and Zodiac will finally get his just due. It will be well deserved and high past time.
Best Picture: The Nominees are Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Social Network, Winter's Bone, Toy Story 3, The King's Speech, The Kids Are Alright, 127 Hours, and True Grit.
Who Should Win: Inception. What can I say? I saw this movie three times in the theater and I still find something new every time I watch it. It worked on every level; visual effects, drama, acting, writing, directing. My favorite movie of the year by far and my personal choice for Best Picture. Unfortunately I see Inception only picking up best visual effects this year but I hope it snags Best Original Screenplay and gives Christopher Nolan a little redemption.
Who Will Win: The King's Speech. The Weinstein brothers have undoubtedly sucked enough dick at this point to garner the votes for their latest film. I see it just edging out The Social Network for picture of the year.
Well there you have it! See you next week when I do an Oscar recap right here on the cookie jar.
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